In the paper, Executive Overconfidence and the Slippery Slope to Financial Misreporting, forthcoming in the Journal of Accounting and Economics as published by Elsevier, our detailed analysis of a sample of 49 firms subject to SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAERs) suggests two distinct explanations for the misstatements. Just over one quarter of the cases represent many of the well-publicized examples of corporate fraud including Adelphia, Enron, Healthsouth, and Tyco. The nature of the misstatements, their timing, and an analysis of the executives suggest that the activities are consistent with a strong inference of intent on the part of the respondent and consistent with the legal standards necessary to establish fraud.

However, perhaps more surprising, we find that the actions by the executives in the remaining three quarters of the cases are not consistent with the pleading standards required to establish an intent to defraud. Rather, our analysis of the 49 AAER firms suggests that optimistic bias on the part of executives can explain these AAERs. We show that the misstatement amount in the initial period of alleged misreporting is relatively small, and possibly unintentional. Subsequent period earnings realizations are poor, however, and the misstatements escalate. Using a matched sample of non-AAER firms, we show that the misreporting firms did not simply get a bad draw on earnings. Nor does it appear that weaker monitoring relative to the matched sample explains why the misreporting manager’s optimistic bias affects the financial statements.

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