Brief teaser: Geopolitical shocks directly alter the risk calculus for shareholder activists. This Update lays out factors at play in activists’ decisions as proxy season meets the Iran conflict, whether activism is likely to decline, and approaches companies should take.

Escalating hostilities in the Middle East have injected a new layer of geopolitical risk into already fragile capital markets. The effects of oil price volatility, supply chain disruption, cyberthreats, and heightened regulatory scrutiny are rippling across industries. As with tariffs last year, geopolitical shocks do not affect only a company’s operating performance; they also directly alter the risk calculus for shareholder activists. While the ultimate geopolitical trajectory remains uncertain, the immediate question for Corporate America is more tactical: Will the Iran war chill proxy contests this season?

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