Aubrey Bout is a Managing Partner, and Brian Wilby and Perla Cruz are consultants at Pay Governance LLC. This post is based on their Pay Governance memorandum. Related research from the Program on Corporate Governance includes The Growth of Executive Pay by Lucian Bebchuk and Yaniv Grinstein; Paying for Long-Term Performance by Lucian Bebchuk and Jesse Fried (discussed on the Forum here); and The CEO Pay Slice by Lucian Bebchuk, Martijn Cremers and Urs Peyer (discussed on the Forum here).
Introduction and Summary
CEO pay continues to be discussed extensively in the media, in the boardroom, and among investors and proxy advisors. CEO total direct compensation (TDC; base salary + actual bonus paid + grant value of long-term incentives [LTI]) increased at a moderate pace in the first part of the last decade —in the 2-6% range for 2011-2016. CEO pay accelerated with an 11% increase in 2017, likely reflecting sustained robust financial and total shareholder return (TSR) performance, before returning to 3% in 2018, which is more in line with historical rates. Our CEO pay analysis is focused on historical, actual TDC, which reflects actual bonuses; this is different from target TDC or target pay opportunity, which uses target bonus and is typically set at the beginning of the year.
As proxies are filed in early 2020, we expect to find that 2019 CEO TDC increases will be modestly higher (in the low single digits) due to low 2018 TSR (-4% S&P 500 TSR) and economic uncertainty during Q1 2019 when LTI grants were made. Increases in 2019 actual pay will be primarily driven by higher cash bonuses as most companies had strong financial performance in 2019 and exceeded annual goals.