The following post comes to us from Eric Floyd, Nan Li, and Douglas Skinner, all of the Department of Accounting at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
Why managers pay dividends remains a puzzle. In our paper, Payout Policy through the Financial Crisis: The Growth of Repurchases and the Resilience of Dividends, which was recently made publicly available on SSRN, we report evidence on the payout policy of US financial and industrial firms over the past 30 years, including through the financial crisis, to shed new light on the why managers pay dividends. There are two specific goals. First, we investigate whether, as would be expected if share repurchases now dominate dividends as a means of paying cash to shareholders, managers used the financial crisis as a convenient excuse to stop paying dividends. Second, we use these data to provide new evidence on whether taxes, and in particular the Tax Relief Act of 2003 (which effectively eliminated the tax disadvantage of dividends) had a first order effect on payout policy.
We find that industrials and financials both increased payouts in the years prior to the crisis, at a pace that was impressive both in absolute terms and relative to earnings. Dividends reach a low point in 2002 but rebound thereafter. Although there is an increase in the fraction of dividend-payers immediately after the Tax Relief Act, we show that this is part of a broader increase in cash payouts that also includes a strong increase in repurchases. In the years after the Tax Relief Act there is no evidence of a shift in the mix of dividends and repurchases towards dividends—if anything, the reverse is true. Nor is there evidence of an increase in dividend payout ratios.