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E-MailRegarding the recent posting by Mr. Agrawal and Professor Kaplan,
Ashwini Agrawal, a graduate student at the University of Chicago, posted a paper on this blog that used a statistical model whose key variables were custom built by him to assert that the AFL-CIO votes its public company proxies based not on proxy voting guidelines, but on the union affiliation of public company employees. Through a series of e-mails (he has refused to meet in person or communicate over the phone) we told him he was completely and utterly wrong and asked him to release his data set. Mr. Agrawal accused the AFL-CIO of not responding to his questions after refusing to meet or release his data. University of Chicago Professor Steven Kaplan, who is advising Mr. Agrawal on this project, wrote a lengthy post defending these opaque methods.
Mr. Agrawal’s claim that he contacted the AFL-CIO and was denied information is false. Mr. Agrawal has never contacted a member of the AFL-CIO program staff to discuss his paper or ask for any data, and has refused every opportunity to meet and ask us questions.
Both posts also contain a series of important contradictions. Professor Kaplan and Mr. Agrawal repeatedly assert that the study can be easily replicated using publicly available sources of data. Kaplan emphasizes that this is “an important point. It does not rely on data that can be shaded by an interested party.”
Despite this, Kaplan later asserts that “in putting together a data set, a researcher spends a great deal of time and effort.” Which is it then? Is it a lengthy endeavor worthy of “great time and effort,” or something that’s “easily replicated?”
We continue to demand access to Agrawal’s data because it cannot be replicated. His data collection efforts were more subjective than mechanical. For example, when data on company unionization was incomplete Mr. Agrawal relied on information “from the Investor Relations departments of firms themselves.” [Appendix A, pg. 29]
The difficulty of replicating this skewed effort at data collection is obvious. How would the AFL-CIO go about determining which companies he contacted directly? Should we selectively call random Investor Relations departments and ask for the individual who spoke with Mr. Agrawal two years ago? What if the person he spoke with no longer works at the company? How do we know what source the Investor Relations Department used, and was it the same across all companies? Was a record of his phone conversations kept to back up his methodology?
Mr. Agrawal and Professor Kaplan assert that his paper has not been published, and that because it is not published they should be able to keep their data secret. It’s true that it hasn’t appeared in any peer reviewed setting–but it has been twice cited on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal as evidence for repeated false accusations against the AFL-CIO, as well as being posted on this blog and widely circulated in academic and business circles.
Professor Kaplan’s defense that they won’t release data to a competing researcher is misplaced. We are the subject of a widely published study which makes false accusations based on unreproduceable statistical models. We are not seeking to complete a research project for a rival journal, but instead correct the record.
We would be happy to receive Mr. Agrawal’s data on the strict condition that we won’t turn it over to competing researchers or publish it in a competing paper. As outlined above, we need to review the accuracy of Mr. Agrawal’s data and statistical model, and when given the opportunity to talk to him, inform him of the serious flaws in his research.
A copy of the AFL-CIO’s recent report, Facts About the AFL-CIO’s Proxy Votes, is available here. We repeat our request that Mr. Agrawal release his data set or withdraw his paper.
