Stephen Utkus is Visiting Scholar at Wharton Business School and Fellow at the Center for Financial Markets and Policy at Georgetown University. This post is based on a recent paper, forthcoming in the American Economic Review, by Mr. Utkus; Stefano Giglio, Professor of Finance at Yale School of Management; Johannes Stroebel, David S. Loeb Professor of Finance at NYU Stern School of Business; and Matteo Maggiori, Associate Professor of Finance at Stanford University Graduate School of Business.
Why do investors allocate their portfolios as they do? What causes them to change their minds and trade in their portfolios? These are critical questions in the field of macro finance. And central to answering them is understanding the role of expectations: what investors believe about future market returns and risks, how their beliefs vary with time, and how those beliefs come to influence real-world portfolio choices.
Among financial economists, there has been a growing interest in measuring investor expectations in a systematic way using surveys. However, surveys have been hindered by too qualitative a set of measures or by the lack of data showing how surveyed investors actually act on their beliefs.
In order to tackle such concerns, we have created a new research initiative on investor beliefs that combines administrative and survey data for a panel of individual investors at Vanguard. Vanguard is a well-known global asset manager; it is also large provider of investment services to U.S. retail investors. The survey, conducted every other month since February 2017, asks investors about short- and long-term expected stock market returns. It also elicits the subjective distribution of expected returns, allowing us to examine beliefs about low-probability events like a market crash. We also survey expectations on economic growth. These survey results are paired with portfolio allocation, trading, demographic and digital attention data.