This post comes to us from Radhakrishnan Gopalan, Assistant Professor of Finance at Washington University in St. Louis, Todd Milbourn, Hubert C. and Dorothy R. Moog Professor of Finance at Washington University in St. Louis, and Fenghua Song, Assistant Professor of Finance at Penn State University.
In our paper, Strategic Flexibility and the Optimality of Pay for Sector Performance, which is forthcoming in the Review of Financial Studies, we propose a model in which a CEO chooses the firm’s strategy as she faces uncertainty regarding future sector movements. She can put forth (personally) costly effort to generate an informative signal about future sector returns. The optimal contract rewards the CEO for firm performance induced by sector movements so as to provide her incentives to exert effort to forecast the sector movements and choose the firm’s optimal exposure to them.
As our model shows, benchmarking the CEO’s performance against her sector is the same as not offering her pay for sector performance and will make firm investment decisions insensitive to sector movements. This practice is suboptimal if sector performance affects firm performance. Our model also helps pin down situations in which the sensitivity of pay to sector performance is more likely to be present. We find that multi-segment firms, especially those in which the sector performances of the different segments are less positively correlated, will offer pay contracts that are more sensitive to sector performance as compared to single segment firms. This is because such firms provide greater opportunity to the CEO to actively shift resources towards sectors that are likely to outperform. We also find that the sensitivity of pay to sector performance will be greater in any firm that offers greater strategic flexibility to the CEO to alter firm exposure to sector movements and for more talented CEOs. Our model also shows that the optimal contract rewards a risk-averse CEO more when sector performance is good than punishes her when sector performance is bad; that is, the optimal contract is asymmetrically sensitive to good and bad sector performance.
