Alperen A. Gözlügöl is an Advanced Researcher of the Cluster Law and Finance, Julian Greth is a Ph.D. Student and a Junior Researcher of the Cluster Law and Finance, and Tobias H. Tröger is Professor of Private Law, Commercial and Business Law, Jurisprudence at Goethe-University, and Director of the Cluster Law and Finance at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe. This post is based on their recent paper.
More than three decades ago, Nobel laureate Michael Jensen had predicted the ‘eclipse of the public corporation’ (Harvard Business Review, 1989). Time and again, market developments seemed to corroborate Jensen’s hypothesis with various trajectories of growing private markets and lagging public markets. Similarly, private markets have seen eye-catching growth in recent years, while public markets appear to be withering both in the US and Europe. Increased private capital raising and declining IPO and public company numbers in leading capital markets support this observation. These developments have caused much discussion, with some commentators again seeing a fundamental shift in the relevance of public and private markets for corporate finance and alarmed regulators.
In our recent article “The Oscillating Domains of Public and Private Markets”, we contribute to the debate about the future of capital markets and corporate finance on both sides of the Atlantic. We shed light on the fluctuating significance of public and private markets for corporate finance over time and challenge the conventional view of a linear trend from one market to the other. Although recent years have seen a steady rise of private markets, a deeper dive into modern financial history shows that these developments are not evidence per se of a stable and linear trend. Putting the recent developments in capital markets in a broader historical context reveals a more complex pattern that does not align with the ‘end of history’ type of predictions some have been making. In particular, financial history shows various boom-and-bust periods in private market activity (see Kaplan & Strömberg, 2009). Therefore, caution is called for when making absolute predictions about capital markets and corporate finance developments, as cyclical booms might purport to be secular trends.