Monthly Archives: January 2025

M&A Predictions and Guidance for 2025

Ethan Klingsberg is a Partner at Freshfields US LLP. This post is based on his Freshfields memorandum.

1. No private equity M&A boom in 2025, but…. 

Thousands of private equity portfolio companies are past their “sell by” dates and private capital institutions have trillions of dollars in dry powder to finance everything from senior debt to equity for purchases of these companies by M&A buyers. This seems like a perfect formula for an M&A explosion, right?

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Equity Plan Proposals: Strong Shareholder Support Continued in 2024

Teddy Lombardo is a Consultant, Linda Pappas is a Principal, and Tara Tays is a Partner at Pay Governance LLC. This post is based on their Pay Governance memorandum.

Key Takeaways

  • Nearly 25% of Russell 3000 companies submitted an equity plan proposal in 2024. Shareholder support was strong, about 90% on average, and less than 1% of proposals failed to receive majority support (very similar to 2023 levels).
  • It is most common for companies to return to shareholders every 2 to 3 years to seek equity plan approvals.
  • Proxy advisor opposition to equity plan proposals typically results in lower shareholder support; however, the equity plan proposal failure rate increases very modestly (to a failure rate of less than 4%).
  • Russell 3000 companies that received low shareholder support had median potential dilution of 20%, or double the median of the overall Russell 3000 potential dilution of 10%.
  • Among the small sample of companies that failed to receive shareholder support over the last two years, approximately half were in the healthcare sector, and the majority of companies that failed had higher potential dilution levels compared to the median of their respective sector.
  • There are several steps companies can take to navigate toward a successful shareholder vote outcome for an equity plan proposal, including analyzing the share reserve needs and relative potential dilution, understanding top shareholder voting policies and proxy advisor concerns, and clearly disclosing the shareholder-friendly features of the equity plan.

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The Impact of Impact Investing

Jonathan Berk is The A.P. Giannini Professor of Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business, and Jules H. van Binsbergen is the Nippon Life Professor on Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. This post is based on their recent article forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics.

If a socially conscious investor wants to have real impact on the way a company operates, what is the best way to achieve it? Given the increased interest in this question by policymakers, institutional investors, and retail investors alike, evaluating what is likely to work, and under what circumstances, deserves careful theoretical and empirical research. In our paper The Impact of Impact Investing which is forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that one often-advertised way of socially responsible investing is unlikely to materially change the way companies operate: divestment in secondary markets. Direct investments in primary markets, and increasing voting rights (engagement) by buying (rather than selling) stocks in secondary markets, both deserve careful attention.

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SEC Enforcement: 2024 Year in Review

Harris Fischman, John Carlin, and Jeannie Rhee are Partners at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP. This post is based on a Paul, Weiss memorandum by Mr. Fischman, Mr. Carlin, Ms. Rhee, Lorin Reisner, Matt Kaminer, and Hunter Kolon.

During Chair Gary Gensler’s last fiscal year heading the Securities and Exchange Commission, the total number of enforcement actions dropped, but financial remedies hit a record high. In this Year in Review, we highlight important takeaways for business leaders and in-house counsel from the Enforcement Division’s activities in 2024, and look ahead to the SEC’s priorities in 2025 under a second Trump administration.

Highlights

  • Reduced Enforcement, Increased Cooperation: This fiscal year saw a slowdown in the total number of SEC enforcement actions to 583—down 26% from FY 2023. While it brought fewer cases, the Division still recovered $8.2 billion in financial remedies, the highest annual recovery in SEC history—although over half of that came from the judgment in one major cryptocurrency case. That figure is especially notable given the SEC’s continued efforts to encourage self-reporting and cooperation, including a record 34 admissions of guilt and 75% of public-company and subsidiary defendants having their cooperation noted, the highest level since FY 2019.
  • Emerging Focus on AI, Consistent Focus on Crypto and Cyber: Artificial intelligence was a top priority for the Division in 2024 and will likely remain important in 2025 under incoming Chair Paul Atkins. The Division adapted its enforcement approach to new alleged fraudulent schemes in the AI, cryptocurrency, and cyber spaces, including scams leveraging social media. It remains to be seen what the enforcement agenda in these areas will be under the new administration, particularly with respect to cryptocurrency.
  • Less Judicial Deference to SEC Adjudication and Rulemaking: The Supreme Court issued several major decisions in 2024 that may have a significant impact on the SEC’s enforcement and rulemaking authority. In SEC Jarkesy, the Court held that the Division cannot use in-house administrative law judges (ALJs) to seek civil penalties for securities fraud—undoubtedly a loss for the SEC, but one with uncertain impact on the Division’s approach to enforcement. The Court also issued two important decisions on the power of administrative agencies—giving regulated parties greater latitude, and more time, to challenge rules promulgated by the SEC that exceed its statutory authority.

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Climate and Sustainability Regulations: 2024 End-of-Year Review

Beth Sasfai is a Partner, Michael Mencher is a Special Counsel, and Jack Eastwood is an Associate at Cooley LLP. This post is based on their Cooley memorandum.

2024 was an active year for environmental, social and governance (ESG) regulations, voluntary reporting standards, and stakeholder policies. While the incoming Trump administration is expected to halt federal sustainability reporting regulations for the next four years, 2024 saw several significant state and international regulatory developments that will impact US and other companies in 2025. In addition to numerous significant pending regulations, 2025 will see many companies busily preparing for initial disclosures under existing regulations, such as the California climate statutes and the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD).

This client alert provides an overview of the current state of key climate and sustainability regulations, as well as significant stakeholder developments as of the end of 2024. It also highlights critical areas of focus for the year ahead.

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Insider Trading Policies: A Survey of Recent Filings

Scott Levi, Maia Gez, and Michelle Rutta are Partners at White & Case LLP. This post is based on a White & Case memorandum by Mr. Levi, Ms. Gez, Ms. Rutta, Danielle Herrick, Melinda Anderson, and Tami Stark.

White & Case’s Public Company Advisory Group has conducted a survey of publicly filed insider trading policies to assess emerging trends with respect to key insider trading policy terms. Starting with Form 10-K/20-F annual reports for June 30 fiscal year end companies, new SEC rules [1] (under Item 408 of Regulation S-K) now require companies to disclose whether they have adopted an insider trading policy, and, if so, to file such policy as Exhibit 19 to their Form 10-K [2] or Exhibit 11 to their Form 20-F. Companies with calendar year-end fiscal years will be required to meet these new insider trading policy requirements in their upcoming annual reports filed in early 2025. [3]

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Private Equity—2024 Review and 2025 Outlook

Andrew J. Nussbaum, Steven A. Cohen, and Igor Kirman are Partners at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. This post is based on a Wachtell Lipton memorandum by Mr. Nussbaum, Mr. Cohen, Mr. Kirman, Karessa L. Cain, Mark F. Veblen, and Victor Goldfeld.

After a two-year decline in private equity activity, 2024 witnessed a rebound in both private equity acquisitions and exits, though volumes were still well below pandemic-era levels. Total announced global private equity deal volume increased 22%, from $1.3 trillion in 2023 to $1.7 trillion in 2024. Many of the headwinds that private equity M&A faced over the prior two years—including elevated interest rates and tumultuous financial markets—abated or stabilized. At the same time, several years of stalled exits have led to record long investment holding periods, with sponsors having an average holding period of five years in 2023-2024, compared to 4.2 years in 2021-2022. Robust fundraising has also left sponsor dry powder levels near 2023’s historical peak.

We expect that the combination of record-high amounts of deployable capital, sponsors seeking liquidity events, and improving market conditions will cause private equity dealmaking to increase in 2025. Sponsors seem increasingly willing to transact at current market valuations, and the robust credit and equity capital markets should facilitate activity.

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Weekly Roundup: January 17-23, 2025


More from:

This roundup contains a collection of the posts published on the Forum during the week of January 17-23, 2025

Should SEC Revisit Executive Security Perquisite Disclosure?


ESG and Sustainability Insights: 10 Things That Should Be Top of Mind in 2025


Activists Target Insurance Industry?


Cultural Values and Cross-Country Differences in Responsible Investing Sectors


Practice Points Arising from Albertsons’ Claims Against Kroger for Breach of their Merger Agreement


The Political Carbon Cycle


2024 Review of Shareholder Activism


Mergers and Acquisitions—What Awaits in 2025?


Insider Trading in Connected Firms during Trading Bans


Voting on Voting Rights: How the World’s Largest Investors Sanction Companies with Unequal Voting Rights


Compensation Season 2025


The Economics of Net Zero Banking


C-Suite Outlook 2025: Seizing the Future


C-Suite Outlook 2025: Seizing the Future

Matteo Tonello is Head of Benchmarking and Analytics at The Conference Board, Inc. This post is based on a Conference Board memorandum by Mr. Tonello, Dana Peterson, Jeanne Shu, and Chuck Mitchell.

Key Insights

  • CEOs globally continue to focus on growth in 2025 despite material challenges and risks ahead. CEOs rank innovation, introducing new products and services, and investing in technology (including AI) as their primary strategies for growing profits, and they desire leaders who are innovative thinkers to drive future growth.
  • CEOs cite the rapid advancement of AI technology, rising geopolitical tensions (particularly between the US, EU, and China), a slowing global economy, regulatory burdens, and sustainability demands as the high-impact external factors their organizations face in 2025.
  • Close to half of CEOs consider intensified trade wars to be the leading conflict-related geopolitical business risk in 2025, followed by foreign cyber attacks and an increased risk of conflict in Asia-Pacific, issues directly related to concerns over rising tensions between the US, EU, and China.
  • Global political instability, lessons from the pandemic-era disruptions, and the threat of escalating trade tensions have created renewed urgency around the need for supply chain resilience. Globally, 78.3% of CEOs plan to alter their supply chains over the next three to five years, led by Asia and followed by Europe (i.e., France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and a small number of respondents from other economies) and the US.

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The Economics of Net Zero Banking

Adair Morse is the William A. and Betty H. Hasler Chair in New Enterprise Development and Professor of Finance at the Haas School of Business, and Parinitha Sastry is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Columbia Business School. This post is based on their recent paper.

In recent years, the banking sector has witnessed a significant shift, with banks representing 41% of global banking assets voluntarily committing to aligning their portfolios with a decarbonizing, net zero economy. Even banks without net zero commitments are pursuing investments in low emissions transitions. This trend raises important questions about the economics behind these commitments and their implications for the banking industry and capital allocation in the real economy.

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