René M. Stulz is the Everett D. Reese Chair of Banking and Monetary Economics at the Fisher College of Business at The Ohio State University. This post is based on his recent paper.
In my paper titled FinTech, BigTech, and the Future of Banks, I examine how FinTech and BigTech impact the future of banks. For this article, FinTech is defined as financial innovation based on the use of digital technologies and big data. BigTech firms are “technology companies with established presence in the market for digital services” according to the BIS.
Despite all the excitement about FinTech and the dire warnings about the threat it poses to traditional banks, from 2013 to mid-2019, the Dow-Jones U.S. Banks Index more than doubled and more than held its own with respect to the S&P 500. There is no evidence that the stock market prices bank stocks as if banks were an endangered species. Does this mean that banks can ignore FinTech and BigTech? That they do not represent a competitive threat to banks? That banks are safe from disruption? Or is the stock market just confused about the prospects of banks?