With the accelerating transition away from fossil fuels, awareness of the role of minerals critical to the production of clean energy (including cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements) has increased. There is a sharper focus on rising prices; production; delivery delays; as well as on the vulnerability of their supply chains. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated these concerns.

Several of the factors that increase the risks to the stability and reliability of the supply chains of green energy are well researched. These include geographical concentration of the main components of the supply chain; climate risks; and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. The concentration of production in one or a few countries makes the supply chains relying on those minerals vulnerable not only to market power and logistical risks but also to geopolitically induced disruptions, especially through trade restrictions.

The issue of who ultimately controls the production of minerals and the governance context in which they operate are also very important but much less researched. Production of a mineral could be widely dispersed globally, but a particular entity (a holding company or a few competing companies located in a country where authorities have the power to force a coalition if it suits their geopolitical interest) may have ultimate control (including through subsidiaries) over the decisions of the top firms producing that mineral, even if they are in different countries. That entity would then have a high degree of control, including market power, over the global production of that mineral and the supply chains that use it. More generally, there is a risk associated with imperfect information about entities that control a (mining) process, including their ultimate objectives, the geopolitical tendencies of the country in which they are located, and the length of time they intend to hold the controlling shares.

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