Subodh Mishra is Global Head of Communications at Institutional Shareholder Services, Inc. This post is based on a publication by Hernando Cortina, CFA, Head of Index Strategy, and Brian Kennedy, Index Strategy Associate, at ISS ESG.
Related research from the Program on Corporate Governance includes The Illusory Promise of Stakeholder Governance (discussed on the Forum here) and Will Corporations Deliver Value to All Stakeholders? (discuss on the Forum here) both by Lucian A. Bebchuk and Roberto Tallarita; Restoration: The Role Stakeholder Governance Must Play in Recreating a Fair and Sustainable American Economy – A Reply to Professor Rock (discussed on the Forum here) by Leo Strine; and Stakeholder Capitalism in the Time of COVID (discussed on the Forum here) by Lucian Bebchuk, Kobi Kastiel, and Roberto Tallarita.
For many, investing in the current market environment can be described as navigating uncharted waters. With US inflation running at a 40-year high and a rocky first half of the year for both equity and fixed income markets globally, uncertainty is high. One possible source of returns in this environment could be dividends, particularly from those companies able to grow their dividends despite the prevailing macroeconomic headwinds. Companies with dividend growth that keeps pace with inflation could potentially be favored by investors.
Despite market uncertainties, investor interest in Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations remains high. Flows into ESG exchange-traded funds, while slowing down compared to 2021, have remained positive this year. Understanding the relationship between ESG scores and subsequent dividend growth therefore could be of significant value to investors.
This post presents a case study of US large and mid-cap equities and their subsequent three-year dividend growth, distinguishing among them based on their ESG ratings at the start of the study period, December 2018. The analysis is based on a starting equity universe drawn from the 2018 composition of the Solactive GBS United States Large and Mid Cap Index.
The two key metrics in the analysis are the ISS ESG Corporate Rating as of December 2018, as well as annual dividends paid in the calendar years 2018 and 2021, drawn from Bloomberg. The ISS ESG Corporate Rating is ISS ESG’s comprehensive ESG Score, incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance pillars. The 2018 and 2021 dividends are used to calculate a three-year dividend growth rate.
