Peter Molk is Associate Professor of law at the University of Florida Levin College of Law and Frank Partnoy is the Adrian A. Kragen Professor of law at the University of California Berkeley School of Law. This post is based on their recent paper. Related research from the Program on Corporate Governance includes The Long-Term Effects of Hedge Fund Activism by Lucian Bebchuk, Alon Brav, and Wei Jiang (discussed on the Forum here); Dancing with Activists by Lucian Bebchuk, Alon Brav, Wei Jiang, and Thomas Keusch (discussed on the Forum here); and Who Bleeds When the Wolves Bite? A Flesh-and-Blood Perspective on Hedge Fund Activism and Our Strange Corporate Governance System by Leo E. Strine, Jr. (discussed on the Forum here).
First, the punch line of our new empirical study: activist short selling, which we call “negative activism,” has real and lasting long-term effects. On average, the share prices of targeted companies fall by more than 20% after four years. Accounting returns plummet. Targets are more likely to be sued and investigated by regulators. The numbers are staggering.
Meanwhile, GameStop-style attacks have led some short sellers to flee the market, and targets are being placed on others. Regulators are debating new short selling restrictions. Investors are focused on the mechanics of short selling. Some public company executives are eager to deter short selling. Members of Congress are attacking short sellers, often without evidence.
Many readers of this Forum are familiar with the two main results in the literature on “positive” activism. Its announcement is associated with a short-term share price increase in the range of +7%, and this price increase is reflected in long-term improvements in shareholder value. Scholars have replicated these findings repeatedly during the past decade, generating a lively and important debate that continues today. The early literature spawned an entire field of study, and the threat of positive shareholder activism has become a front-of-mind reality for practitioners, board members, and market participants.