Mark J. Roe is David Berg Professor of Business Law at Harvard Law School. This post is based on his recent paper. Related research from the Program on Corporate Governance includes The Myth that Insulating Boards Serves Long-Term Value by Lucian Bebchuk (discussed on the Forum here); Don’t Let the Short-Termism Bogeyman Scare You by Lucian Bebchuk (discussed on the Forum here); Will Loyalty Shares Do Much for Corporate Short-Termism? by Mark J. Roe and Federico Cenzi Venezze (discussed on the Forum here); Stock Market Short-Termism’s Impact by Mark J. Roe (discussed on the Forum here); and Corporate Short-Termism – In the Boardroom and in the Courtroom by Mark J. Roe (discussed on the Forum here).
To investigate the widespread claim that stock market short-termism is a major drag on U.S. corporate investment, R&D, and the broad economy, I review for this paper in the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance trends in corporate capital investment, stock buybacks, and R&D that stretch back, in some cases, over the past 50 years. (I also briefly summarize firm-level data—which I analyze more extensively elsewhere—and explain limits in extrapolating strong policy recommendations from firm-level data.)
As critics of market-driven corporate short-termism have pointed out, U.S. corporate investment in capital equipment and other tangible assets has been falling steadily since the late 1970s, and buybacks have been rising, while stock market short-termism is thought to punish corporate R&D spending. This relationship is suggestive of large public firms pushing out their cash and weakening their capacity to invest, while forgoing their future by weakening R&D work. If the story of economy-wide short-termist decline due to increasing stock market pressure for immediate results were valid and strong, we would expect to see the following: (1) investment spending in the United States declining faster than in Europe and Japan, where large companies depend less on stock markets for capital and where shareholder activists are less influential; (2) cash from large share buybacks inducing a bleeding out of cash from the U.S. corporate sector; and (3) economy-wide declines in corporate R&D spending.